Brackets Simulated
2,046,199,983
Each game outcome sampled according to model win probability. 2 billion unique brackets generated for frequency analysis.
The Last Bracket Standing
A post-mortem on 2 billion random brackets vs. the 2026 NCAA Tournament
The Extinction Curve
Each game was a filter. Hover over any point to see which result caused the drop.
Surviving brackets (log scale)
Key moments
The Biggest Kill Shots
The games that did the most damage, ranked two ways.
Most Destructive (total eliminated)
Biggest Upsets (model had them losing)
The Odds of Perfection
The probability of a bracket being perfect through each round — coin-flip odds vs. what our model-weighted brackets actually achieved.
| Round |
Games |
Coin-Flip Probability |
Actual Probability |
Surviving |
Model Edge |
Pre-Tournament Advancement Odds
Probability each team reaches each round, based on 2 billion simulated brackets using our XGBoost model.
| # |
Team |
R32 |
S16 |
E8 |
F4 |
Final |
Champ |
Championship Odds — Top 15