Region Power Rankings
Upset Alerts — First Round
| Region |
Favorite |
Underdog |
Upset Probability |
Head-to-Head Heatmap — Top 16 Seeds
Us vs Vegas vs History — First Round
Three benchmarks: Our Model (XGBoost PRUNED-25),
Vegas Lines (ESPN/BetMGM opening moneylines, converted to implied probability),
and Historical seed win rates (1,279 R64 games from tournament database).
| Region |
Matchup |
Us |
Vegas |
Hist |
Us-Vegas |
Signal |
Rooting Interests — Round 1
In a Brier-scored competition, you gain the most when you're right and the field is wrong.
These are the games where our predictions diverge most from the field.
Sorted by total Brier advantage (this game + downstream impact).
Region Power Rankings
Upset Alerts — First Round
| Region |
Favorite |
Underdog |
Upset Probability |
Head-to-Head Heatmap — Top 16 Seeds
Us vs Field — First Round
Our model predictions vs historical seed win rates (field proxy). No Vegas lines available for women's.
| Region |
Matchup |
Us |
Hist |
Gap |
Signal |
Rooting Interests — Round 1
Same Brier strategy for the women's bracket. Our model predictions vs the field.