NBA Player Props - Daily Betting Guide
Points, Rebounds & Assists
February 03, 2026 at 04:05 pm ET
Yesterday’s Results
Summary
| Metric | High | Medium | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-4 | 6-6 |
| Win Rate | 60% | 42.9% | 50% |
| P&L | +$72 | -$163 | -$91 |
Points
High Confidence
Medium Confidence
Rebounds
High Confidence
## No High confidence Rebounds bets yesterdayMedium Confidence
## No Medium confidence Rebounds bets yesterdayAssists
High Confidence
## No High confidence Assists bets yesterdayMedium Confidence
## No Medium confidence Assists bets yesterdayAll Results
Recent Performance
Last 30 Days
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Current Season
Performance Chart
Today’s Picks
Remember: Points = UNDERS | Rebounds = OVERS | Assists = OVERS
Points
High Confidence
Medium Confidence
Rebounds
High Confidence
## No High confidence Rebounds picks todayMedium Confidence
## No Medium confidence Rebounds picks todayAssists
High Confidence
## No High confidence Assists picks todayMedium Confidence
All Picks
Historical Backtest
All-Time P&L
Season Summary
Strategy Stats
Rebounds & Assists (Matchup Filter)
Update (2026-01-31): After fixing lookahead bias in the backtest, the matchup filter shows no meaningful edge. Earlier results (+6-12% ROI) were inflated because we used current team rankings on historical data. With proper dynamic rankings calculated as of each game date, results are essentially break-even.
Bottom Line: After correcting for lookahead bias, the matchup filter shows no reliable edge for rebounds or assists. Rebounds are marginally better vs hard matchups (56.2% vs 54.7% win rate) but still near break-even. Stick to points UNDERS only.
Quick Reference
What To Bet Today
THE RULE IS SIMPLE:
| Prop Type | Recommendation | Why |
|---|---|---|
| POINTS | UNDERS only | Model underpredicts scoring (+7-11% ROI) |
| REBOUNDS | NOT RECOMMENDED | No reliable edge after proper backtest |
| ASSISTS | NOT RECOMMENDED | No reliable edge after proper backtest |
How To Use This Report
- Check Yesterday’s Results - See how bets performed
- Review Today’s Picks - Filter by prop type and confidence
- Place High/Medium confidence bets - Skip Low confidence
- Use the recommended sportsbook - Already line-shopped for best odds
Quick Stats from Backtest
| Prop | Bet Type | Win Rate | ROI | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Under | 55-57% | +10-15% | All matchups, 2+ edge |
| Rebounds | Under | 63% | +12.6% | Hard matchups only |
| Assists | Under | 61% | +7.4% | Hard matchups only |
Hard Matchups = Top 8 defensive teams (rolling 45-day calculation)
Methodology
The Model
Elastic Net Regression - A regularized linear model that predicts player stats using recent performance data.
Active Prop Types
| Prop Type | Bet Direction | Status | Win Rate | ROI | Filter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | UNDERS | Production | 55-57% | +10-15% | All matchups |
| Rebounds | UNDERS | Production | 63% | +12.6% | Hard matchups only |
| Assists | UNDERS | Production | 61% | +7.4% | Hard matchups only |
Hard matchups = Top 8 defensive teams (recalculated daily from last 45 days)
How It Works
- Calculate features from player’s recent 3-9 games
- Model predicts expected stat (points/rebounds/assists)
- Compare to line = calculate edge (prediction vs sportsbook line)
- Filter by direction - All props: UNDERS only
- Matchup filter - Rebounds/Assists: only bet vs top-8 defensive teams
- Require minimum edge - 2+ points/rebounds/assists
Points Model
The points model systematically underpredicts player scoring, which makes UNDERS profitable.
Features used (12 total):
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| roll_pts_3/5/7/9 | Rolling points average over 3, 5, 7, 9 games |
| roll_mp_3/5 | Rolling minutes played |
| roll_usg_3/5 | Rolling usage percentage |
| roll_3pa_3 | Rolling 3-point attempts |
| career_avg_pts | Career points average |
| roll_pts_sd_5 | Scoring variability (5-game std dev) |
| days_rest | Days since last game |
Backtest results (walk-forward):
| Strategy | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| All bets | 48% | -8% |
| Overs only | 44% | -15% |
| Unders only | 55% | +18% |
| Unders + 4pt edge | 57% | +25% |
Betting rule: UNDERS only with 3+ point edge
Rebounds Model
Key Discovery (2026-01-31): Sportsbooks don’t fully adjust lines for opponent defensive quality. UNDERS are profitable when facing hard matchups (top-8 rebounding defenses).
Features used (12 total):
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| roll_trb_3/5/7/9 | Rolling total rebounds over 3, 5, 7, 9 games |
| roll_mp_3/5 | Rolling minutes played |
| roll_orb_5, roll_drb_5 | Offensive/defensive rebounds |
| career_avg_trb | Career rebounds average |
| roll_trb_sd_5 | Rebounding variability |
| reb_per_min | Rebounds per minute rate |
| days_rest | Days since last game |
Backtest results with DYNAMIC matchup filter (no lookahead bias):
| Matchup Type | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All matchups | 19,218 | 55.0% | -2.3% |
| Hard matchups | 3,953 | 56.2% | +0.03% |
| Other matchups | 15,265 | 54.7% | -2.9% |
Result: Marginally better win rate vs hard matchups, but essentially break-even. Not recommended.
Assists Model
Backtest results with DYNAMIC matchup filter (no lookahead bias):
| Matchup Type | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All matchups | 12,866 | 52.8% | -6.1% |
| Hard matchups | 2,950 | 53.4% | -5.2% |
| Other matchups | 9,916 | 52.6% | -6.4% |
Result: No meaningful difference between hard and other matchups. Not recommended.
Betting Rules Summary
Points
| Rule | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Bet Type | UNDERS only |
| Min Edge | 3+ points |
| Max Odds | -150 or better |
| HIGH conf | 4+ point edge |
Rebounds
NOT RECOMMENDED - Dynamic backtest shows no reliable edge (+0.03% ROI)
Assists
NOT RECOMMENDED - Dynamic backtest shows no edge (-5.2% ROI)
Generated 2026-02-03 16:05 ET